Deficit Target Pledge
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Pledges to Cut Federal Deficit to 3% Amid 5% Forecasts
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged this week to cut the federal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028 — even as the government's own forecasters say it will stay near 6%. Bessent made the promise in back-to-back congressional hearings, telling lawmakers he wants a deficit "with a three in front of it" The Center Square.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the fiscal year 2026 deficit at $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP The Center Square. That is nearly double Bessent's target. The gap between the pledge and the projection has put the Treasury secretary on a collision course with budget watchdogs, Democratic lawmakers, and the math itself.
Bessent's "3-3-3" Plan Explained in Plain Terms
Bessent's goal is part of a broader framework called the "3-3-3" plan. It aims for 3% real economic growth per year, a 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio, and 3 million more barrels of domestic oil per day — all by 2028 The Center Square. The 3% deficit threshold is borrowed from the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, the founding document of the European Union, which set 3% as the line between healthy and "excessive" deficits.
Bessent argues that cutting taxes and slashing regulations will spark growth strong enough to shrink the deficit naturally. His counselor, Joseph Lavorgna, called the CBO's 1.8% GDP growth forecast "remarkably low" The Center Square. Bessent went further, saying: "I will take the market over the CBO every day of the week."
CBO Numbers Tell a Very Different Story
The CBO's February 2026 baseline report projects deficits staying near 5-6% of GDP through the decade The Center Square. Public debt has already hit 101% of GDP — the highest since World War II. Annual interest payments on that debt reached $1 trillion in 2026, more than the entire discretionary defense budget.
Critics say the "One Big Beautiful Bill," signed into law on July 4, 2025, makes the math even harder. The CBO estimates the law adds $2.4 trillion to the debt over ten years The Center Square. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, supports the 3% target but warns that $2 trillion annual deficits have become a "scary norm."
Congress Pushes Back From Both Sides of the Aisle
At the Senate Finance Committee on June 3, Democratic ranking member Senator Ron Wyden slammed the administration's budget as a "billionaire-first" plan with a $3 trillion price tag The Center Square. He argued the White House cannot claim fiscal responsibility while passing large tax cuts at the same time.
Some Republicans backed Bessent. Senator Mike Crapo highlighted the administration's claim of cutting 129 regulations for every new one added. Representative Lloyd Smucker pushed for a legislative cap on the debt-to-GDP ratio The Center Square. Still, no concrete spending cuts large enough to close the gap have been identified in the White House's FY2027 budget request, which itself calls for a 12% cut to Treasury's domestic programs.
The Cost of Missing the Target Could Be Enormous
Analysts warn the stakes are high. If the deficit stays elevated while tax cuts remain in place, interest costs could consume 19% of all federal spending by 2036 The Center Square. The Center for American Progress estimates that hitting 3% without raising taxes would require cuts of roughly 31% to programs like Medicaid, SNAP, and veterans' benefits.
The administration has staked its economic credibility on this "fiscal anchor." If the gap between 5.8% and 3% fails to close, analysts say it could trigger bond market volatility or even a credit rating review. Interest payments are already projected to hit $2.1 trillion per year by 2036 — a number that would crowd out nearly every other budget priority The Center Square.
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