Texas Senate Race Deadlocked
New UT Austin Poll Reveals Paxton, Talarico in Statistical Tie for Texas Senate Seat
Key Points
GOP loyalty consolidation: In the June UT Austin Texas Politics Project poll, 84% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton in November, up from 63% in April, signaling a strong post-primary consolidation that could boost Paxton’s turnout advantage.
Independent voters show a stark split: 40% of independents back Talarico versus 12% backing Paxton, with 34% of independents undecided, highlighting a key battleground segment.
Hispanic voters swing: Talarico leads Hispanics by 14 points, a demographic dynamic that could influence turnout in diverse Texas communities.
Demographic splits: Talarico leads among voters under 65 and those with a two-year college degree or more, while Paxton leads among male voters by about 9 points and Talarico leads female voters by about 6 points, indicating nuanced cross-pressures across groups.
Poll sizes and margin of error: UT–Texas Politics Project surveys cited in the coverage typically involve around 1,200–1,251 registered voters, with margins of error near 2.8–3.5 percentage points, underscoring the closeness of the race and the variability across polls.
A new poll shows the Texas U.S. Senate race is essentially a dead heat. Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico 43% to 42% — a margin well within the poll's error range of about 2.8 to 3.5 points, according to UT Austin Texas Politics Project.
The survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted June 5–12, marks a dramatic shift from April, when Talarico led by 8 points. The Texas Tribune reported that Paxton's surge follows his decisive May 26 runoff win over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who lost his 24-year Senate career in a race many called a political earthquake.
Trump Endorsement Drives GOP Consolidation Behind Paxton
In April, only 63% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton. By June, that number jumped to 84%, according to UT Austin Texas Politics Project. Analysts tie the shift directly to former President Donald Trump's May 19 endorsement, in which he called Paxton an "America First Patriot" and a "MAGA Warrior."
The Guardian reported that Trump's endorsement proved decisive in the runoff. Paxton beat Cornyn with 63.8% of the vote — the first time a sitting Texas senator lost a primary since 1970. The Brookings Institution called it the "end of the Bush-era Texas GOP."
Independents Break Hard for Talarico, Race Stays Volatile
Among independent voters, Talarico leads Paxton 40% to 12%, with 34% still undecided, per UT Austin Texas Politics Project. That gap is enormous — but undecided independents could break either way. About 10% of all voters remain undecided, giving both campaigns room to grow.
Libertarian Ted Brown pulls 3% of the vote. That share could act as a spoiler for Paxton among traditional conservatives who are uneasy with his legal controversies. Talarico has called Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America," according to CBS News.
Demographic Splits Reveal a Race With Many Fault Lines
Paxton leads men by 9 points. Talarico leads women by 6 points. Talarico also leads among voters under 65, Hispanics by 14 points, and those with at least a two-year college degree, according to UT Austin Texas Politics Project. Each group represents a pressure point both campaigns are fighting over.
The Texas Tribune noted that Talarico, a former middle school teacher, has leaned into a "top vs. bottom" message instead of traditional left-right framing. His campaign is targeting suburban moderates and younger voters who are turned off by Paxton's history of scandal — including a 2023 impeachment trial and ongoing federal investigations.
National Stakes Lift a Texas Race Into the Senate Spotlight
Republicans hold a slim U.S. Senate majority. A Talarico win could flip chamber control, which is why this race has become a national priority for both parties. A pro-Talarico super PAC called "Moment of Truth" has already announced a $62 million advertising campaign targeting Paxton's scandals, according to The Texas Tribune.
mysanantonio.com and other Texas outlets described the race as "neck and neck." With four months until November, the outcome will likely hinge on which side better turns out its base — and which candidate wins over the large share of independents still making up their minds.
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