Japan's High Typhoon Alert
Japan anticipates up to 28 typhoons in 2026, posing significant threat to summer travel
Key Points
The forecasts aren’t just higher than average—some reported figures come with sharp historical context: Japan typically sees about 25 typhoons form annually in the northwest Pacific, with fewer than three making landfall on the Japanese mainland; the year with the most typhoons was 1994 (33 formed), and the record for most Japan landfalls was 2004 (10).
Typhoon Jangmi’s early-season impacts included concrete disruption metrics and rainfall extremes: 524 domestic flights were canceled, and in Owase City, Mie Prefecture, 52.6 cm of rain fell in the 24 hours up to 9 a.m. on June 3 (the highest daily rainfall that month, according to the report).
Early-season activity is already ahead of normal. A meteorology professor at Yokohama National University, Hironori Fudeyasu, said that as of June, six typhoons had formed—“double the monthly average of three.”
A Japan-focused long-range outlook from the Japan Weather Association links the heightened typhoon risk to broader summer climate mechanics—forecasting “stronger Pacific high-pressure patterns,” increased rainfall, and a heightened likelihood of typhoon impacts especially along Pacific-facing coasts.
The operational knock-on effects from Jangmi also extended to named airlines and additional transport modes: the report claims Japan Airlines and ANA suspended services from Tokyo Haneda, Osaka Kansai, and Fukuoka airports simultaneously; it also says the shinkansen was halted, Tokyo metro services were suspended, and ferries to the southern islands were canceled indefinitely.
Japan is bracing for one of its most active typhoon seasons on record. Long-range forecasts from Weathernews predict up to 28 tropical cyclones will form in the Western North Pacific in 2026 — above the annual average of 25. Forecasters warn that as many as 14 could make direct landfalls or significant impacts on Japan, which would shatter the previous record of 10 set in 2004.
The warning comes as summer tourism is set to hit record highs. Typhoon Jangmi has already shown what disruption looks like: 524 domestic flights canceled in a single day, the Shinkansen halted, and 60,000 households left without power. Experts say this is just the beginning.
Typhoon Jangmi Hits Hard, Canceling 900 Flights
Typhoon Jangmi made landfall in southern Wakayama Prefecture on June 3. It was the first June landfall in Japan since 2012, according to The Japan Times. In Owase City, Mie Prefecture, 52.6 cm of rain fell in just 24 hours — a monthly record. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued its highest Level 5 emergency flood warning across eight prefectures, including Tokyo and Kanagawa.
The transport chaos was sweeping. Japan Airlines canceled 292 domestic and 46 international flights. ANA canceled 232 domestic and 55 international, according to Yomiuri Shimbun. In total, nearly 900 flights were scrapped, affecting 90,000 passengers. Shinkansen services stopped. Tokyo Metro suspended trains. Ferries to the southern islands were canceled indefinitely. Postal services halted across 14 prefectures.
2026 Season Already Running Double the Usual Pace
The season started abnormally early. Tropical Storm Nokaen formed in January — the first January storm since 2019. By early June, six typhoons had already formed. "That is double the monthly average of three," said Hironori Fudeyasu, a meteorology professor at Yokohama National University, according to The Asia Business Daily. A count of six usually is not reached until July or August.
Professor Fudeyasu also warned that storms are getting stronger, not just more frequent. Higher ocean heat content is the main driver. Typhoon Sinlaku became the season's first super typhoon as early as April. Analysts at Weathernews say the season is "running ahead of schedule" and that climate conditions are steering more storms toward Japan rather than the Asian mainland.
Warm Seas and El Niño Push Storms Toward Japan
The core cause is heat. Sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific are unusually warm in 2026. A lingering La Niña pattern from 2025 is shifting into what could be a record El Niño event by mid-year, according to the Japan Weather Association. That shift strengthens westerly winds, which steer storms away from the Asian mainland and directly toward Japan's Pacific-facing coasts.
The Japan Weather Association forecasts "stronger Pacific high-pressure patterns" this summer. Those patterns trap storms on a path toward Japan's main islands. Professor Fudeyasu said: "We will see the El Niño effect this year, and that will have a significant impact on typhoons." The most dangerous window, forecasters say, runs from late summer into early autumn.
Record Tourism Season Faces Repeated Storm Disruptions
The timing is painful for Japan's travel industry. Summer 2026 was on track to be a record year for international visitors. A single typhoon, Jangmi, paralyzed airports in Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka at the same time, according to South China Morning Post. That "cascade effect" has rattled travel analysts, who warn that long-haul visitors face the biggest risk — they have fewer backup options when storms strand them for multiple days.
If the 14-landfall forecast holds, repeated shutdowns of the Shinkansen and major airports could hit Japan's Q3 economy hard. The travel industry is still promoting summer packages, arguing modern infrastructure can absorb the strain. But climate scientists at Yokohama National University push back: in 2026, travel flexibility is "no longer a luxury but a necessity," according to The Traveler.
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