G7 Mineral Price Dispute
G7 Allies Question US AI-Driven Critical Mineral Price Plan, Stalling Talks
Key Points
European officials argued for an index grounded in “real deals in the European market,” with Nicola Beer of the European Investment Bank telling Reuters that approach would be preferable to a Washington-controlled pricing mechanism.
The EU-backed effort to build an alternative pricing index is being developed through EIT RawMaterials in partnership with the digital platform Metalshub, according to Reuters reporting.
Reuters reported that the mining-industry positions are based on review of more than 230 public submissions filed to Jamieson Greer’s office by “miners, refiners and customers,” reflecting a wide split over what allies should be asked to pursue.
The U.S. administration is resisting a French proposal to create a permanent administrative secretariat within the International Energy Agency or the OECD to track G7 critical-minerals efforts as presidencies rotate.
A U.S. push to build a Western trading bloc for critical minerals is hitting a wall. G7 allies — led by European nations — are rejecting Washington's plan to regulate mineral prices using a Pentagon artificial-intelligence model called OPEN, according to Reuters. Talks are fracturing over cost, control, and who gets to set the rules.
The U.S. wants binding deals with Japan and the EU in place by June 30. But deep splits over pricing, governance, and deal structure are threatening to derail the effort before it gets off the ground, Mining.com reported.
What the Pentagon's AI Pricing Model Actually Does
The OPEN model — short for Open Price Exploration for National Security — was built by DARPA and trained on over 70 mining datasets. It tries to calculate what a mineral "should" cost based on Western labor, processing, and environmental standards. The goal is to strip out the effect of Chinese subsidies and arrive at a "resilient price," according to MineX Forum.
In May 2026, the U.S. transferred the OPEN model to the Critical Minerals Forum, a private non-profit led by former diplomat Rob Strayer. Washington wants allies to use this AI-driven index as the basis for price floors — guaranteed minimum prices meant to keep Western mines profitable even when China floods the market with cheap supply.
Europe Pushes Back Against Washington-Controlled Pricing
European officials argue that handing price-setting power to a U.S.-controlled algorithm gives Washington too much influence. Nicola Beer, Vice President of the European Investment Bank, told Reuters that "for Europe, it would be better to have a price index based on real deals in the European market."
The EU is backing an alternative. EIT RawMaterials, an EU-funded body, is partnering with digital platform Metalshub to build a transaction-based European benchmark index. Bernd Schaefer, CEO of EIT RawMaterials, warned that price floors "can become very expensive for taxpayers" without a transparent spot market to anchor them, Mining.com reported.
Multilateral Secretariat vs. Fast Bilateral Deals — Allies Split on Structure
France and Canada want a permanent institution — a secretariat housed inside the IEA or OECD — to coordinate G7 mineral efforts as summit presidencies rotate between countries. Washington is resisting that idea. The U.S. prefers fast bilateral agreements with individual partners that could expand later, according to EU Observer.
The U.S. is targeting five to ten minerals for its first round of binding deals, including antimony, graphite, tungsten, and heavy rare earths. China placed mandatory export licenses on seven heavy rare earth elements — including dysprosium and terbium — in April 2026, adding urgency to the talks.
U.S. Mining Industry Divided Over Price Controls
The American mining sector is not speaking with one voice. Reuters reviewed more than 230 public submissions filed to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's office by miners, refiners, and industrial customers. The responses showed a sharp split. Some companies support price floors for the certainty they provide. Others warn against price-fixing.
Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association, favors "incentive-based approaches" like tax credits over government-set prices. Junior miners, by contrast, tend to back the OPEN model because guaranteed offtake prices make it easier to raise financing. The IEA has estimated that if China fully enforces its export controls, the economic value at risk for non-Chinese nations could reach $6.5 trillion per year, according to MineX Forum.
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