Major EPS Downgrades
Erste Group Trims Earnings Estimates for Five Key Global Companies on July 15
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Key Points
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Booking Holdings' downgrade by Erste Group Bank is complemented by a flurry of other analysts issuing updates on BKNG, with Barclays at $210 (overweight), Baird at $215 (outperform), BTIG at $250 (buy), Oppenheimer at $215 (outperform) and Citigroup at $225 (buy); MarketBeat also shows BKNG with a Moderate Buy rating and an average target of about $227.29.
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Toyota Motor's FY2027 EPS was trimmed to $18.48 from $18.57 by Erste Group Bank, versus a current-year consensus of $20.93; Erste also provided a FY2028 estimate of $21.25. The coverage landscape includes Morgan Stanley initiating with equal weight, Freedom Capital upgrading to strong buy, and Zacks Research downgrading to a strong sell.
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Vinci's FY2027 EPS was cut to $2.81 from $2.90 by Erste, while Citi had already downgraded Vinci to neutral on May 27; MarketBeat shows a mixed rating with three Buy and three Hold recommendations, and Vinci's 52-week range sits around $32.72 to $42.10 with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87.
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IBM's FY2027 EPS was lowered to $13.38 from $13.41 by Erste Group Bank, with the current-year consensus at $12.33; IBM recently reported a Q2 result of $1.91 per share on $15.92 billion in revenue, and the stock carries a dividend history including $1.69 per quarter and an ex-dividend date of May 8.
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Ecolab's FY2026 EPS was reduced to $8.15 from $8.24, with the consensus near $8.14, and FY2027 is forecast at $9.40. Deutsche Bank lifted its price target to $335, while JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi also issued more bullish notes; MarketBeat shows a Moderate Buy with an average target around $324.29.
Erste Group Bank trimmed its earnings forecasts for five major companies on July 15, issuing lower earnings-per-share estimates for Booking Holdings, Toyota Motor, Vinci, IBM, and Ecolab. The cuts were small but notable, touching firms across travel, autos, infrastructure, tech, and industrial services. Watchlist News and Ticker Report both covered the revisions as they landed.
The downgrades were modest in size but broad in scope. Erste trimmed Booking's FY2026 EPS to $10.39 from $10.42. Toyota's FY2027 estimate fell to $18.48 from $18.57. Ecolab's FY2026 figure dropped to $8.15 from $8.24. IBM and Vinci also saw cuts, though in some cases Erste's new numbers still sit above or near the broader analyst consensus.
Booking and Ecolab Estimates Fall Just Below Consensus
Erste cut Booking Holdings' FY2026 EPS to $10.39 from $10.42. The broader analyst consensus sits at $10.43, so Erste is now the most cautious of the group. Despite the downgrade, other banks remain bullish on the stock. Barclays has a price target of $210 with an overweight rating. Baird and Oppenheimer are both at $215. BTIG is the most optimistic at $250. According to Watchlist News, the average analyst target for BKNG sits around $227.29.
Ecolab's FY2026 EPS was cut to $8.15 from $8.24. The consensus is nearly identical at $8.14, meaning Erste is now just one cent above the market average. Erste also projects FY2027 EPS at $9.40. Other analysts remain upbeat. Deutsche Bank lifted its price target to $335. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi all issued more bullish notes as well. The average analyst target tracked by Ticker Report is around $324.29.
IBM and Vinci Hold Above Consensus Despite Cuts
IBM's FY2027 EPS estimate was lowered to $13.38 from $13.41 — a tiny trim. But the consensus for that year is only $12.33, so Erste is still well above the average. IBM recently reported a strong Q2, earning $1.91 per share on $15.92 billion in revenue. The stock also pays a quarterly dividend of $1.69, with an ex-dividend date of May 8, according to Ticker Report.
Vinci's FY2027 EPS was cut to $2.81 from $2.90. Here too, Erste remains above the consensus of $2.63. Citi had already downgraded Vinci to neutral back on May 27. The stock's 52-week range runs from $32.72 to $42.10. Analysts are split: MarketBeat shows three Buy and three Hold recommendations on the French infrastructure company, which carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, per Ticker Report.
Toyota Faces the Widest Gap Between Erste and Consensus
Toyota's FY2027 EPS estimate was trimmed to $18.48 from $18.57. That sounds minor, but the current analyst consensus for that year stands at $20.93 — more than $2 higher than Erste's view. Erste also issued a FY2028 estimate of $21.25, suggesting it expects a recovery down the road. The coverage picture is mixed. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an equal-weight rating, per Ticker Report.
Freedom Capital upgraded Toyota to a strong buy, while Zacks Research moved in the opposite direction, downgrading it to a strong sell. That kind of disagreement is unusual for a company Toyota's size. The wide gap between Erste's FY2027 estimate and the consensus suggests analysts have very different views on how Toyota will navigate electric vehicle competition and ongoing supply chain pressures.
What the Revisions Signal About Analyst Sentiment
Taken together, the five downgrades from Erste Group Bank are small in dollar terms but tell a broader story. Erste is nudging its models lower across a wide range of industries — travel, autos, construction, tech, and water treatment. None of the cuts are dramatic. The biggest percentage drop was Vinci's, where FY2027 EPS fell about 3% from $2.90 to $2.81, according to Watchlist News.
In several cases, Erste's revised estimates still sit above the consensus. That is true for IBM, Vinci, and Toyota. For Booking and Ecolab, the new numbers land right at or just below the market average. The pattern suggests Erste is aligning itself more closely with peers rather than making a bold call against the companies. Investors watching these stocks should note that the broader analyst community remains mostly bullish across all five names.
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