Wisconsin Democratic Primary Unsettled
Francesca Hong Leads Wisconsin Democratic Primary as Undecided Voters Remain Crucial Amid Field Shifts
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Key Points
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The Marquette poll cited was conducted before Crowley rejoined the race after Sara Rodriguez dropped out, so it does not reflect the current field dynamics; poll director Charles Franklin noted that voters “really tune in in the last few weeks of the campaign.”
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In that same snapshot, Rodriguez had about 11% support and Crowley was not in the race yet, illustrating the unsettled baseline the poll captured just before the field shifted.
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In a separate head-to-head snapshot, Mandela Barnes leads Tom Tiffany 44% to 40%, Hong trails Tiffany 40% to 43%, and among likely voters Hong and Tiffany are effectively tied at 44% each.
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After removing Rodriguez voters from the equation, 48% of Democrats remain undecided, and Francesca Hong still holds a lead, with the poll noting the undecided pool can swing the outcome as voters tune in.
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Hong performs strongly among liberals, capturing 58% of the very liberal bloc, underscoring her appeal within the left-leaning wing of the party.
State Rep. Francesca Hong leads Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary with 26% support, but roughly 45% of Democratic voters remain undecided, according to a new Marquette Law School poll TMJ4. The race is already shifting fast — the poll was taken before David Crowley re-entered the field and before Sara Rodriguez dropped out, meaning the numbers may not reflect where things stand today.
Marquette poll director Charles Franklin warned that voters "really tune in in the last few weeks of the campaign," signaling the outcome is far from settled Civic Media.
Hong Holds Lead as Field Reshuffles Around Her
Hong leads the Democratic field at 26%, with Mandela Barnes in second at around 15%, according to WRCO. Rodriguez held about 11% support before she exited the race. Crowley had not yet re-entered when the poll was taken, leaving his support level unknown.
Even after removing Rodriguez's voters from the data, Hong still leads. But 48% of Democrats in that stripped-down pool remain undecided WRJN. That enormous undecided bloc means any late surge by Crowley or Barnes could upend the race entirely.
Hong Dominates the Left, But Undecideds Could Tip It
Hong's strongest ground is among the most liberal Democrats. She captures 58% of the "very liberal" bloc, per Civic Media. That base gives her a durable floor of support. But moderates and casual voters — many of whom are still undecided — will decide the nominee.
The 45% undecided rate is down from 65% in March, showing voters are slowly tuning in Fox11. Still, nearly half of the primary electorate has not made up its mind. Endorsements and late advertising could move a lot of those voters in a short window.
Crowley's Return and Evers Endorsement Shake the Race
After Rodriguez quit, David Crowley jumped back into the race. Gov. Tony Evers quickly endorsed him — a major boost. Neither development appears in the current poll data. That makes the Marquette numbers a snapshot of a race that no longer exists in its current form TMJ4.
Evers is one of Wisconsin's most popular Democrats. His backing of Crowley could pull undecided voters who trust the governor's judgment. How much support Crowley can build from that base will be one of the biggest questions as the primary approaches.
General Election Matchups Put Wisconsin's Battleground Status on Display
The poll tested Democrats against likely GOP nominee Tom Tiffany. Barnes leads Tiffany 44% to 40% in a head-to-head matchup. Hong trails Tiffany 40% to 43% in one version — but among likely voters, Hong and Tiffany are effectively tied at 44% each WRJN.
Those tight numbers remind both parties that Wisconsin is a genuine battleground. A nominee who underperforms in a general election matchup could cost Democrats the governorship. That dynamic may factor into how undecided primary voters weigh their choice in the final weeks.
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