Midterm Polls Shift
Trump Approval Slips as Economic Dissatisfaction and Inflation Drive Democratic Lead in Polls
Anonymous
Recent polls show President Donald Trump’s approval weakening, with estimates ranging from 29% to 39%; Nate Silver’s polling aggregate puts his net approval at a record low of about minus 23. Economic dissatisfaction is prominent, with voters concerned about inflation, gas and grocery prices, and some polling showing voters blame Trump for worsening the economy and trust Democrats more on inflation. Several polls give Democrats an 11- to 12-point lead on the congressional ballot, and Silver’s forecast favors Democrats to win the House and Senate in November. The outlook for Republicans may depend in part on whether disruption from the Iran war keeps energy prices and inflation elevated or eases before the election.
Key Points
1
Nate Silver’s issue-by-issue aggregate showed Trump’s net approval at -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy and -46.4 on inflation. The same aggregate found 57.9% opposed the Iran war and 33.5% supported it.
2
In a Fox News poll, 61% of voters called gas prices a major problem and 62% said the same about grocery prices. Republican Sen. John Kennedy acknowledged Congress had not acted on inflation, saying, “These prices are gutting the middle class like a fish,” and that Congress “should have started five months ago.”
3
A CNN/SSRS poll found Trump’s approval on the economy was 22 points below its level at the same point in his first term in 2018; Americans’ overall view of the economy was 41 points worse than then.
4
The Economist/YouGov poll reported Trump’s approval fell five points in one week, from 40% to 35%, ending five consecutive weeks of gains and leaving him two points above his record low in that survey.
Sentiment
Mostly NegativeNEGATIVENEUTRALPOSITIVE
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Reach
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