George Santos Lifetime Ban
Kalshi issues its first lifetime trading ban and penalty to former Representative George Santos.
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Key Points
1
Kalshi records Santos earned exactly $17,839.57 from bets on whether he would attend the State of the Union, with bets placed between February 2 and February 25, 2026.
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Kalshi publicly notes the ban was triggered by Santos's lack of cooperation with its compliance department during the investigation into the trades, and the profits cited are described as nearly $18,000.
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Coverage situates Santos’s legal entanglements in a West Islip, New York court context, with a court hearing referenced in August 2024.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, permanently banned former Rep. George Santos on Wednesday, marking the company's first-ever lifetime ban. NBC News reports that Santos earned approximately $17,839.57 betting on whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union — an event he directly controlled. The platform also hit him with a $71,356 penalty for failing to cooperate with its investigation.
The ban follows years of legal trouble for Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023. Morning Journal notes that Kalshi concluded Santos likely engaged in insider trading when he bet against his own attendance. This marks a major enforcement action by the prediction market as betting platforms face growing scrutiny over market manipulation.
How Santos Profited From Secret Knowledge
Between February 2 and February 25, 2026, Santos placed large bets on a Kalshi market tied to his State of the Union attendance. EP Trail reports that he netted roughly $18,000 in profits from these trades. The key problem: Santos had the power to decide whether he would actually attend, giving him an unfair advantage over other traders who had to guess.
Kalshi determined that Santos's trades showed a clear pattern of someone with inside knowledge. He made his largest bets shortly before making decisions about attendance. This type of behavior — trading on non-public information you control — is exactly what insider trading laws aim to prevent.
Santos Ignored Kalshi's Investigation Demands
The $71,356 penalty wasn't just for the trades themselves — it was also punishment for non-cooperation. The Times-Tribune explains that Kalshi launched a compliance investigation after spotting suspicious trading patterns. Santos refused to work with the platform's compliance department as they tried to understand what happened.
By stonewalling investigators, Santos escalated his legal trouble. Kalshi made clear that its lifetime ban was partly a response to this obstruction. The company said it needed his cooperation to fully understand the scheme — cooperation Santos refused to provide.
This Joins Santos's Growing List of Penalties
This Kalshi action is just the latest in a series of legal consequences for Santos. In July 2023, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined him $35,000 and imposed a three-year trading ban. That settlement accused Santos of misrepresentations and omissions online that influenced markets.
Combined with his 2023 expulsion from Congress, Santos is now facing a lifetime ban from one prediction market, a three-year trading suspension from the CFTC, and ongoing legal scrutiny. EP Trail notes that prediction markets are becoming a focal point for enforcement as regulators worry about politicians exploiting inside knowledge for financial gain.
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