Diesel Price Surge Warning
Proposed US diesel export ban could push Australian fuel above $4 a litre.
Anonymous
A proposed U.S. ban on diesel exports, backed by President Donald Trump as his administration seeks to ease domestic fuel costs, could sharply raise prices in Australia and lead to rationing within weeks. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic warns diesel could rise by about 50% to more than A$4 a litre, despite Australia not importing the fuel directly from the United States, because the ban would tighten global supplies. Australia is especially exposed as a major diesel importer, with mining and agriculture heavily dependent on the fuel; conflicts affecting refineries and export restrictions by Russia and China have already strained supply. Australian motorists are already facing steep diesel prices, adding pressure to household budgets.
Key Points
1
The ACCC said Australian diesel prices had risen by about 90 cents a litre—nearly 50%—since the Iran war began. A 32-cent-a-litre fuel-excise cut introduced in April was wound back in July and ended in August.
2
Australia received a US diesel shipment earlier in the year, but Macquarie University energy expert Lurion De Mello described it as a “one off” and said those cargoes were exceptional rather than a regular source of supply.
3
The US exports about 1.3 million barrels of diesel a day—roughly a quarter of its refining output—and Australia accounts for 10% of the world’s seaborne diesel imports despite representing about 1% of global fuel demand.
4
Kavonic called the proposal “probably the most worrying development we have seen in global fuel markets since the [Middle East] war began” for Australia’s vulnerability. The article also reported that US diesel prices had exceeded US$6.50 a gallon, a record-high average.
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