Renegade's Belmont Favoritism
Renegade Maintains Favorite Status for 158th Belmont Stakes with Six Hours Remaining
Renegade has been bet down to 8-5 — from a 2-1 morning line — and stands as the clear favorite for the 158th Belmont Stakes, set for a 7:04 PM ET post time at Saratoga Race Course, according to Associated Press. The Kentucky Derby runner-up, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and ridden by three-time Belmont winner Irad Ortiz Jr., is chasing revenge against Derby winner Golden Tempo in a nine-horse field with a $2 million purse on the line.
This is the third and final year the Belmont runs at Saratoga while Belmont Park undergoes a $1.3 billion rebuild on Long Island. The race is shortened to 1 1/4 miles — the same distance as the Kentucky Derby — before returning to a new Belmont Park in June 2027, The Mirror US reported.
Renegade's Post-Derby Path Back to the Top
Renegade finished second at Churchill Downs on May 2, beaten by a neck by Golden Tempo — a 23-1 longshot trained by Cherie DeVaux. That day, Renegade broke from the difficult rail post and was squeezed early. Today he draws post 4, a much cleaner spot. Pletcher called it a "great spot" compared to the rail at Churchill, telling Daily Racing Form that his colt is "going to improve when he stretches out."
Renegade's road to Saratoga included a win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28 and a Sam F. Davis Stakes victory on February 7, per CBS News. Pletcher is chasing a fifth career Belmont win. He described Renegade as "a gritty little colt" — a horse built for big moments.
Golden Tempo and a Gender Barrier on the Line
Golden Tempo, the Derby winner, drifted out to 5-1 in live wagering, per NYRA. Trainer Cherie DeVaux skipped the Preakness to keep her horse fresh for the Belmont — a gamble that drew scrutiny but left Golden Tempo with a three-week rest advantage. Jose Ortiz, Irad's brother, has the mount. The race doubles as a sibling rivalry.
DeVaux is a Saratoga native. A win today would make her only the second woman ever to train a Belmont winner, joining Jena Antonucci from 2023, FOX Sports reported. Chief Wallabee, trained by Bill Mott and the fourth-place Derby finisher, holds steady at 3-1 as the second choice.
Experts Favor Renegade, but Weather Could Shake Things Up
DraftKings' Johnny Avello said he likes "the revenge angle for Renegade," adding that Golden Tempo's Derby numbers "came in slow," per FOX Sports. NBC Sports analyst Drew Dinsick called Renegade's post 4 draw "the perfect tactical advantage" in a race that, at 1 1/4 miles, rewards speed over pure stamina. Brad Cox made a late jockey switch, putting Hall of Famer John Velazquez on Commandment (6-1), per TwinSpires.
Weather is a wild card. The National Weather Service puts a 40-60% chance of rain between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM ET, which could leave a sloppy track by post time, according to NY Sports Day. A wet surface would hurt front-runners like Renegade the most. Attendance is capped at 50,000 — and every seat is expected to be filled.
What a Renegade Win Would Mean for the Rest of 2026
No Triple Crown is possible this year. Preakness winner Napoleon Solo skipped the Belmont entirely. Derby winner Golden Tempo skipped the Preakness. That snapped what is now an eight-year streak without a Triple Crown winner, per TwinSpires. Tonight's race is instead a battle for 3-year-old supremacy.
A Renegade victory would push him to the top of the NTRA 3-Year-Old Poll and set up a marquee showdown at the Travers Stakes later this summer, per the NTRA. The full odds board: Renegade (8-5), Chief Wallabee (3-1), Golden Tempo (5-1), Commandment (6-1), Emerging Market (6-1), Powershift (12-1), Growth Equity (13-1), Ottinho (20-1), Vitruvian Man (21-1).
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