North Sea Oil Future
Badenoch Visits Aberdeen, States Tories Would Revitalize North Sea Oil Industry Amidst By-election Debate
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch arrived in Aberdeen on June 15 to make a final push ahead of the Aberdeen South by-election on June 18, promising that a Tory win would give the North Sea oil industry a "kiss of life." The Herald reported her saying that electing Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden "could help revitalise Aberdeen" and rescue a sector she says is under attack from both Labour and the SNP.
The by-election was triggered after SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn resigned his MP seat in May 2026, following the Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Act 2025, which bans politicians from holding seats in both Westminster and Holyrood at the same time.
Labour Drilling Ban and Windfall Tax Fuel Tory Attack
Badenoch has made North Sea energy the centrepiece of her campaign. She called Labour's ban on new North Sea drilling licences a "war on domestic oil and gas." ITV News reported she framed the vote as a "referendum on the future of the North Sea." Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay joined her on the campaign trail, urging pro-union voters to back the Tories to stop an SNP victory.
The Conservatives are also attacking the windfall tax — formally called the Energy Profits Levy — which currently sits at 38%, pushing the total tax rate on North Sea profits to 78%. The Tories introduced it in 2022 but now promise to reform or scrap it. Offshore Energies UK chief executive David Whitehouse warned that without reform, "1,000 jobs continue to be lost every month."
SNP Fires Back Over Tory Record on Jobs
SNP candidate Richard Thomson hit back hard. Darlington & Stockton Times reported Thomson blaming the Conservatives for destroying thousands of Aberdeen jobs and for being the very party that created the windfall tax in the first place. He accused Badenoch of hypocrisy for now promising to rescue an industry her party helped damage.
Employment in the North Sea has fallen sharply. The number of directly employed offshore workers in Scotland dropped from 153,000 in 2010 to just under 84,000 in 2023. First Minister John Swinney has called for Holyrood to take greater control over energy policy to protect Scottish jobs while managing the shift away from fossil fuels.
Conservative Candidate Lumsden Positioned as Industry Insider
Douglas Lumsden, the Tory candidate, is a former MSP with 20 years of experience in the energy sector. The Conservatives have positioned him as a "champion for oil and gas workers" — someone who understands the industry from the inside. Badenoch has argued that only he can make the case in Westminster for Aberdeen's economy.
Oil and gas still supply 75% of the UK's energy needs, according to Offshore Energies UK. Even by 2050, demand is projected to stay at around 20%. The UK faces a projected shortfall of 6 to 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent between 2026 and 2050 if current production trends continue, according to industry data.
What a Tory Win — or Loss — Would Mean
A Conservative victory in Aberdeen South would be a major upset. The Herald noted it could signal a "historic humiliation" for Labour, whose support in the region has reportedly collapsed. It would also validate Badenoch's strategy of using energy jobs to win back voters in industrial areas who feel left behind by the green transition.
Labour argues the drilling ban is essential for reaching net-zero targets and that Aberdeen's future lies in renewables, not "clinging to the past." The Guardian noted that the New Economics Foundation has argued scrapping the windfall tax would mainly "fatten profits" rather than lower energy bills, since UK tax policy does not set global oil prices. Polling day is Thursday, June 18.
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