Violent Crime Declines
U.S. Homicide Rate Continues Steep Decline, Potentially Reaching Century-Low Level
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Key Points
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Salt Lake City is among the cities where the CCJ data show an uptick in violent crime in the first half of 2026, attributed to an increase in rape reports.
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Among the 30-city sample, some of the sharpest decreases were in robberies (down 41%), carjackings (down 51%), and in-home burglaries (down 50%), alongside declines in aggravated assaults and other violent offenses.
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Shoplifting was the only major property crime to rise, with a 5% uptick in the first half of 2026 compared with 2019 levels.
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State-level mortality patterns show uneven gains; notably New Jersey stands out for having a notably lower firearm-death rate—less than half the national rate—reflecting long-running health-care expansion and policy efforts that vary by state.
The U.S. homicide rate is on pace to reach its lowest level in more than a century, according to a new midyear report from the Council on Criminal Justice. Boston Globe reports that homicides in the first half of 2026 are down roughly 18% compared to the same period in 2025 — about 215 fewer killings.
If the trend holds through year-end, 2026 would mark the lowest annual homicide rate since before 1900. The drop follows a record-setting 2025, when NY Post reported murders fell 20% from 2024 — already a historic low.
18% Drop in Homicides Tracked Across 30 Cities
The Council on Criminal Justice tracked 13 types of crime across 30 American cities. Nine categories fell. Main Street Daily News reports that the 18% homicide decline translates to roughly 215 fewer deaths in just the first six months of 2026. That pace, if sustained, would push the full-year rate below any recorded in over 100 years.
Other crimes fell sharply too. Boston Globe notes robberies dropped 41%, carjackings fell 51%, and in-home burglaries declined 50%. Aggravated assaults also dropped. The only major property crime to rise was shoplifting, which climbed 5% compared to 2019 levels.
Not Every City Is Safer — One-Third Saw Violence Rise
The national picture hides real gaps. About one-third of the 30 cities in the study saw deadly violence increase from 2025 to 2026. NY Post flagged eight big cities that bucked the national trend. Salt Lake City was among them, with its uptick driven largely by a rise in reported rapes.
Experts stress the declines are not tied to any single policy or city leader. Progress is spread across cities with very different governments and conditions. But so is the pain — some neighborhoods and communities are still seeing more violence, not less.
Policing, Intervention Programs, and the Post-Pandemic Rebound
So what is driving the drop? Researchers point to a mix of causes. Better policing strategies play a role. So do community-based violence-intervention programs — efforts that put trained workers directly in high-risk neighborhoods to stop conflicts before they turn deadly.
Experts also credit the fading of pandemic-era disruptions. The early 2020s brought job loss, court backlogs, and social breakdown that pushed crime higher. Head Topics reports that as those pressures eased, homicide rates fell across the board — a trend now stretching into its third straight year.
State-Level Gaps Show Uneven Progress Beyond Homicides
The national homicide story is part of a broader picture of uneven safety gains across the country. State-level data on firearm deaths show wide gaps. New Jersey stands out: its firearm-death rate is less than half the national average. Researchers link that to long-running healthcare expansion and gun-safety policies that vary sharply by state.
Denver Gazette notes that the CCJ data covers the first half of 2026 only. Full-year numbers will determine whether 2026 truly breaks the century-old record. Researchers say the trend is promising — but the final count is still months away.
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