Florida Election Poll
New Florida Poll Reveals Tightening Gubernatorial and US Senate Races as Election Nears
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Florida's upcoming races for U.S. Senate and governor are shaping up to be far more competitive than recent cycles, according to a new poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida. The races are described as "notably closer" than in previous years, with fewer undecided voters than earlier in the election season. Daily Commercial reported that undecided numbers have dropped from double digits, signaling voters are making up their minds.
On the Senate side, Democratic candidate Angie Nixon holds a slight lead over fellow Democrat Alex Vindman in the primary race, while Republican Ashley Moody leads the general election matchup with 50%. For governor, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads his presumptive Democratic opponent, Pinellas County's David Jolly, by five percentage points, according to TCPalm.
Senate Race Narrows as Moody Holds Slim Majority
Republican Ashley Moody enters the general election holding 50% support in the latest poll. That is a thin margin, but it gives her a lead in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide races for years. The tightening race suggests Democrats may have a real shot at flipping the seat, according to Naples News.
On the Democratic side, Angie Nixon leads Alexander Vindman in their primary contest. Nixon's edge is slight, and the race remains competitive heading into the primary. The shrinking number of undecided voters means both candidates will need to lock in support quickly, Palm Beach Post reported.
Donalds Leads Jolly by Five Points in Governor Race
In the governor's race, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a five-point lead over David Jolly, the presumptive Democratic nominee from Pinellas County. That gap is tighter than Republicans have seen in recent Florida governor contests. Both DeSantis and Marco Rubio still carry approval ratings above 50%, which could give Donalds a boost on the campaign trail, according to Ocala.
Jolly is expected to be the Democratic standard-bearer after the field narrowed. The race remains competitive enough that either party could win, a notable shift for Florida, which has trended sharply Republican in recent cycles, Herald Tribune noted.
Jerry Demings Drops Out After Cancer Diagnosis
The Democratic field for governor got smaller after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings suspended his campaign. Demings disclosed a prostate cancer diagnosis, which prompted him to step back from the race. His exit cleared a path for Jolly to consolidate Democratic support, News-Journal Online reported.
Demings had been seen as a serious contender given his high profile in central Florida. His departure shifts the Democratic coalition and puts pressure on Jolly to build a broad coalition quickly. The five-point gap with Donalds means every vote will matter in November.
DeSantis and Rubio Approval Ratings Above 50%
Despite competitive races, Florida's top Republicans remain popular. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio both carry approval ratings above 50%, the UNF poll found. That kind of approval for incumbent leaders can lift the whole Republican ticket, according to Jacksonville.com.
Still, the overall tightening of races suggests the political landscape is shifting. Fewer undecided voters and narrower margins point to a more engaged electorate in 2026. Florida has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2018, making any competitive race significant, PNJ noted.
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