Political poll shakeup
CIS Survey reveals PSOE falls 5 points, PP narrows lead amidst Zapatero and Díez controversies
The ruling PSOE has suffered its sharpest monthly drop in years, falling 5.1 points to 31.3% in the June barometer published today by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), according to RTVE. The Popular Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, climbed to 27.1%, cutting the gap between Spain's two main parties from 11.5 points to just 4.2 points in a single month.
Two converging scandals drove the collapse. A judge at the Audiencia Nacional indicted former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero on May 20 for alleged criminal organization, money laundering, and influence peddling. Days later, the Civil Guard raided PSOE headquarters in Madrid over the so-called 'Leire Díez Plot' — an alleged operation to interfere with judicial investigations, according to El Independiente.
Zapatero Indicted as Plus Ultra Case Widens
Judge José Luis Calama formally indicted Zapatero on May 20, 2026, according to El Español. The charges stem from the government's 2021 bailout of Plus Ultra, a small airline with alleged ties to Venezuela's regime. Investigators found that a joint bank account held by Zapatero and his wife received €1.5 million over five years from companies under investigation, Antena 3 reported.
Investigators are also examining offshore accounts in Dubai and payments to a company owned by Zapatero's daughters called What The Fav S.L. President Pedro Sánchez responded by offering full support for his predecessor. 'I have read the summary and there are no reasons to change my position,' Sánchez said, adding that he had 'all respect for the presumption of innocence of President Zapatero,' according to El Diario.
Civil Guard Raids Ferraz Over the 'Leire Díez Plot'
On May 27, the Civil Guard's Central Operative Unit (UCO) entered PSOE headquarters in Ferraz to seize documents. The UCO alleges that Leire Díez — a former party operative nicknamed 'The Plumber' — ran a structure designed to bribe or pressure judges, prosecutors, and police officers. Offers allegedly reached €300,000 to individual prosecutors, according to El Diario and the Fundación Hay Derecho.
A personal notebook belonging to Díez, called the 'blue notebook,' reportedly contains meeting logs with initials 'P.S.' PP leader Feijóo challenged Sánchez directly in Congress, asking: 'Is the President the one referred to in the plot documents?' according to ESdiario. Sánchez has denied any knowledge, saying he 'never authorized nor had information' about Díez's activities, according to RTVE.
CIS Numbers Show PSOE Base Finally Cracking
The CIS interviewed 4,024 citizens between June 1 and June 4 — right at the peak of media coverage of both scandals. The PSOE dropped from 36.4% to 31.3%. The PP rose from 24.9% to 27.1%. Vox slipped slightly to 15.8%. Sumar gained 0.7 points to reach 6.4%, according to El País.
Political analysts say the erosion goes deeper than the numbers. 'The drop is not just about the numbers; it's about the erosion of the moral high ground the PSOE claimed since the 2018 motion of censure,' noted an editorial in Radiocable. Even with the CIS's historically pro-government reputation, analysts say, the institute could not soften the scale of the fall.
Congress Showdown and Coalition Cracks Loom Ahead
Sánchez is scheduled to appear before Congress on June 24 to explain both the Zapatero indictment and the Leire Díez plot, according to Diario Público. The session is seen as a potential turning point for the legislature's survival. Coalition ally Junts has already called on Sánchez to consider calling early elections, saying it will not 'sustain' an executive under this level of judicial pressure, according to El Diario.
Concerns are also growing about the 2027 national budget, which has been pushed off the agenda by the scandal, according to RTVE. The government insists it faces a 'lawfare' campaign by a 'judicial right wing.' The opposition counters that even the CIS — which critics say systematically favors the left — can no longer hide the scale of the government's decline.
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