NL Central Showdown
St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs Battle in Key NL Central Series: Odds and Picks
The Chicago Cubs (71-51) host the St. Louis Cardinals (61-60) in a three-game NL Central series at Wrigley Field starting Friday, August 14. Chicago enters as heavy favorites at -172 on the moneyline, per FanDuel Sportsbook, despite getting nearly no-hit in a brutal 7-0 shutout loss to the Washington Nationals just one day earlier.
The Cubs have won eight of their last ten games and haven't lost back-to-back games since July 9-10. They sit 3.5 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) and hold the top NL Wild Card spot. St. Louis, at 7-3 in their last ten, is 13.0 games back and clinging to a 9% playoff probability, according to Montgomery Advertiser.
Cubs' Near No-Hit Nightmare Sets Up Wrigley Bounce-Back
Washington Nationals starter Cade Cavalli took a no-hitter into the seventh inning on August 13. A bloop single by first baseman Michael Busch finally broke it up. But the damage was done — Chicago lost 7-0 in a game that wasn't close, per North Jersey.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell didn't sugarcoat it. "They got to [our] fastball, really," Counsell told MLB.com. "The three-run homers, in a game like that, it feels a little daunting." Starter Kevin Gausman was pulled after giving up five runs. He said simply: "We just ran into a really good pitcher." Still, Chicago has not lost consecutive games in over five weeks.
Clay Holmes vs. Matthew Liberatore — A Stark Pitching Gap
The starting pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago. Clay Holmes takes the mound with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 10 starts. The right-hander has successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation under manager Craig Counsell, per AZ Central.
St. Louis counters with left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who owns a troubling 5.15 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP across 23 starts. His 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings show promise, but his rate of giving up runs creates a steep climb. Sports model numberFire gives Chicago a 66.9% win probability for the opener, per Oklahoma.
Cubs' Thin Bullpen Could Give Cardinals a Fighting Chance
Chicago's biggest weakness is a banged-up bullpen. Key relievers Hoby Milner, Daniel Palencia, Phil Maton, and Shelby Miller are all on the 15-day injured list. If Liberatore can drive up Holmes' pitch count early, the Cardinals could exploit a depleted relief corps, according to Seacoast Online.
Alex Bregman — signed to a five-year, $175 million deal in the offseason — has been Chicago's offensive engine lately, batting .327 with eight home runs in his last 25 games. Michael Busch has also contributed, slashing .245/.353/.388 with 14 home runs and 63 RBIs. The Cubs score 5.2 runs per game, second-best in MLB, while St. Louis manages just 4.4 runs per game, per Canton Rep.
Division Stakes and Over/Under Edge at Wrigley Field
The over/under is set at 8.0 runs, with the Over priced at -108 and the Under at -112. Historically, the Over has hit in 52.5% of Cubs home games at Wrigley, driven by shifting wind conditions. Early forecasts predict mild cross-winds for Friday, which could limit fly balls and slightly favor the Under, per South Bend Tribune.
For the Cubs, a series win tightens the division race and all but locks up a Wild Card home game. For the Cardinals, a sweep by their oldest rival would likely end their playoff push and shift focus toward younger players. At 9% playoff odds and 13.0 games out, St. Louis is running out of time, according to Gainesville.
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