Iran Deal Timeline Disagreement
Trump, Pakistan Anticipate Iran Deal Signing Sunday, But Tehran Indicates More Time Is Needed
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A peace deal to end the four-month U.S.-Iran war could be signed as soon as Sunday, AP News reports, with President Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif both saying an agreement is ready. But Tehran is pumping the brakes. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said flatly: "The signing will not happen tomorrow."
The proposed "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" would end 107 days of conflict that has killed an estimated 7,468 to 10,018 people and sent global oil prices soaring to around $94 per barrel, according to AP News. The deal's most immediate prize: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global oil supply.
Trump Sets Sunday Deadline as Tehran Stalls
Trump posted on Truth Social that "The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL." Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif echoed that optimism, saying on X that peace was "likely expected in the next 24 hours," according to The Guardian.
Iran's negotiators are pushing back. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state TV that Tehran views itself as "the winner of the war," but spokesman Baghaei said finalization in "the coming days" was likely — not Sunday. The Washington Post reports Israel convened an emergency security cabinet meeting on June 14 in response to the fast-moving diplomacy.
How Pakistan Brokered a Deal Between Old Enemies
Pakistan has acted as the key go-between since early April. Islamabad brokered a ceasefire on April 7–8, and Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21, according to AP News. Iran then submitted a formal "14-point proposal" to the U.S. through Pakistani mediators on May 18, demanding sanctions relief and a halt to hostilities.
Qatar and Oman also played supporting roles in the talks. On June 13, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Trump to voice support for the deal and offered British help demining the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported. The proposed agreement is a phased security memo — not a sweeping nuclear accord like the 2015 JCPOA.
Strait Closure Has Cost the World Economy Dearly
Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, just days after the war began. Global oil production fell by 10 million barrels per day overnight. The World Bank slashed its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%. U.S. farm diesel prices rose 50% during the conflict, according to AP News.
Over 7 million people are displaced inside Iran. Reconstruction will cost an estimated $300 billion, according to analysts cited by The Washington Post. If the Strait reopens by June 15 as Trump suggests, analysts expect Brent crude prices to fall sharply from their current $94-per-barrel level — offering relief to economies worldwide.
Israel Feels Sidelined as Deal Takes Shape
Israel launched the initial strikes alongside the U.S. on February 28, hitting 186 cities across 26 Iranian provinces. But now, Israeli officials are growing alarmed. Senior Israeli security figures told Times of Israel the Islamabad MOU is a "slap in the face," claiming Washington accepted Iran's core demands without securing a permanent end to uranium enrichment.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure at home to reject the deal. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — who took over after his father was reported killed during the conflict — has reportedly approved the deal's framework, according to AP News. For Trump, a deal signed on his 80th birthday, June 14, would mark a defining moment of his presidency.
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