Calmer Hurricane Season Expected
Colorado State University Cuts Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Amidst Developing El Niño
Key Points
CSU lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach said the early-season pattern is already resembling past low-activity years—pointing to “characteristics similar to the 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 seasons,” which all had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity.
CSU emphasized that even a quieter forecast can be disrupted by a single storm: it cited 1957 as a below-average hurricane season that still produced Hurricane Audrey, which “unleashed havoc on southwest Louisiana.”
Beyond the U.S. East Coast, CSU also quantified Gulf risks, estimating a 14% chance that a major hurricane will make Gulf Coast landfall—13 percentage points lower than a normal season.
CSU directly linked the downgrade to El Niño’s expected impact on Atlantic wind shear, saying, “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor… driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” and forecasting “a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Operationally, CSU noted the forecast is one of several updates planned for the season—stating the next outlook would be issued July 8—and also reported that the Atlantic season had “delivered no named storms on or before the first of June” for the third straight year.
Colorado State University slashed its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook on June 10, cutting expected named storms from 13 to 11, hurricanes from 6 to 5, and major hurricanes from 2 to 2 — all below the 1991–2020 average. The main reason: a developing El Niño expected to ramp up later this summer, which CSU says will increase wind shear over the Atlantic and make it harder for storms to form and strengthen. Gulf Coast News Now reported the revised forecast also includes an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of just 70, compared to a historical average of 123.
The downgrade follows NOAA's late-May call for 8–14 named storms and 3–6 hurricanes, and comes as the Atlantic season hit June 1 without a single named storm — for the third year in a row, according to Fox 35 Orlando.
El Niño's Wind Shear Is the Season's Key Villain
El Niño happens when the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms above normal. That warming shifts global wind patterns and pumps stronger vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear is the difference in wind speed and direction at different heights in the atmosphere. High shear rips apart developing storms before they can organize into hurricanes. CSU lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach said El Niño is expected to be "the dominant factor" driving those hostile conditions this season, according to Journal Advocate.
Sea-surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic basin are also running near or below normal, adding a second brake on storm development. CSU noted those cooler waters add some uncertainty to the forecast — but the team still expects El Niño's shear effect to win out. The season's atmospheric pattern already resembles six historically quiet years: 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009, and 2015, per Pilot Online.
Landfall Odds Drop Sharply but Risk Stays Real
CSU cut major-hurricane landfall probabilities alongside the storm count. It now puts the chance of a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — hitting the U.S. East Coast at 24%, down from the 43% average in a normal season. Gulf Coast odds fell to 14%, versus a normal-season average of 27 — a drop of 13 percentage points. Caribbean landfall risk dropped to 26%, compared to 42% in an average year, according to Gulf Coast News Now.
CSU was blunt that lower odds are not the same as no risk. The team pointed to 1957, a below-average season that still produced Hurricane Audrey, which "unleashed havoc on southwest Louisiana." CSU forecasters noted they have "no skill" in predicting exactly where any single storm will track — meaning residents and emergency managers should stay fully prepared regardless of seasonal totals, per Fox 35 Orlando.
How the 2026 Forecasts Compare Across Agencies
CSU's April forecast called for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The June update cut those to 11 and 5, respectively. NOAA had already moved in a similar direction in late May, projecting 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes — and assigning a 55% probability to a below-normal season. The Met Office reportedly issued an even more conservative estimate of 9 named storms, according to AOL.
The consistent downward trend across institutions reflects broad agreement that El Niño is strengthening faster than expected. Journal Advocate noted some meteorologists are watching whether the Pacific could warm enough to trigger what they call a "super El Niño," which would push Atlantic conditions even further into hostile territory for hurricane development.
What Comes Next and Why Preparation Still Matters
CSU said its next update is scheduled for July 8, with a final seasonal outlook on August 5. The team stressed that a quiet forecast should not translate into a relaxed public. Even one storm striking a populated coastline can cause widespread damage and loss of life — and seasonal totals offer no guide to where or when that storm might appear, per Pilot Online.
Emergency managers in the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts have flagged "forecast fatigue" as a growing concern. When agencies consistently predict below-average seasons, some residents tune out storm warnings. Forecasters from CSU and NOAA have both pushed back on that tendency, noting that a 24% chance of a major East Coast landfall is still a one-in-four shot — far too high to ignore, according to Fox 35 Orlando.
Sentiment
Mostly NegativePublishers
16
Articles
26
Reach
42
