OpenAI IPO Delay
SoftBank shares tumble on reports of OpenAI IPO delay, fueling investor anxiety.
Key Points
SoftBank’s exposure to AI hinges on Arm (90% ownership) and a 40% stake in a Japanese mobile operator, with SoftBank’s market capitalization around 238 billion yen and a weak financial strength rating (3/10), making the group particularly vulnerable to a delayed OpenAI liquidity event.
Market observers say the OpenAI IPO is a key liquidity event, but ongoing tech-stock volatility and debates over whether to pursue a near-term listing at a lower valuation or push to 2027 could delay the process and complicate valuations of SoftBank’s tech holdings.
OpenAI has confidentially filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, highlighting a formal listing path even as timing remains uncertain due to broader market dynamics.
OpenAI is reportedly considering a pre-IPO tender offer to provide liquidity to employees, a strategy noted by Bloomberg that aligns with SoftBank’s upside hopes from a potential listing while markets assess near-term risk and valuation.
SoftBank Group shares crashed 12.74% to 6,211 yen in Tokyo trading on June 26, erasing 5.6 trillion yen in market value in a single session. The sell-off came after The New York Times reported that OpenAI is leaning toward pushing its IPO from late 2026 to 2027, threatening to delay a liquidity event SoftBank has been counting on to unlock value from its roughly $65 billion stake in the AI company.
The drop was SoftBank's steepest single-day decline since August 2024, according to Yahoo Finance. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly told advisers that listing at less than a $1 trillion valuation is a "nonstarter," leaving investors to wonder how long they will wait.
SpaceX's Rocky Debut Spooked OpenAI's Bankers
The main reason for the delay is what analysts are calling the "SpaceX effect." SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share and briefly surged past $225. Then it crashed back to $147 within three trading sessions, according to Mitrade. Bankers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley used that collapse to warn OpenAI that public markets may not support its ambitions right now.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly pushing for the 2027 delay. Her concern is the company's massive cash burn — projected at $74 billion through 2028 — and the need to clean up its financial reporting before going public, Forbes reported. Adding pressure, rival AI company Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO paperwork on June 1 and could list as early as October 2026, potentially locking up institutional money before OpenAI can debut.
SoftBank's $65 Billion Bet Now Harder to Cash Out
SoftBank is on track to hold a roughly 13% stake in OpenAI worth $64.6 billion by October 2026, according to Investing.com. Without a public listing, that money is locked up. The company already has a weak financial strength rating of 3 out of 10, per analysts at GuruFocus. A delayed IPO keeps SoftBank trapped in what analysts call a "conglomerate discount" — where the market values SoftBank for less than the sum of its parts because investors can't easily price its private assets.
A $6 billion margin loan that SoftBank tried to arrange — using its OpenAI stake as collateral — has reportedly stalled, according to Quartz. Lenders are hesitant to lend against a private asset whose key liquidity event just moved 12 months further away. Resona Holdings strategist Hiroki Takei said a listed OpenAI is the only way to "narrow the conglomerate discount" weighing on SoftBank's stock.
OpenAI's IPO Filing Is Real, But Timing Stays Murky
OpenAI confidentially filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC on May 22, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, according to Forbes. On June 8, OpenAI confirmed the filing but said "timing is undecided." The company reported $13 billion in revenue for 2025, but posted a $21 billion net loss as it spent heavily on computing infrastructure. Its most recent funding round closed at an $852 billion valuation.
To give employees some relief in the meantime, OpenAI is considering a pre-IPO tender offer — a private sale of shares to give workers cash without a public listing, CoinCentral noted. A prior tender offer in October 2025 let 75 employees sell shares worth roughly $30 million each. SoftBank has supported these moves, but they do little to solve the firm's own need for a full public market exit.
SoftBank Bets on Roze to Fill the Liquidity Gap
To soften the blow, SoftBank is accelerating plans for a separate U.S. IPO of "Roze," an AI and robotics company it is building, according to TradingKey. The target valuation is $100 billion, with a listing aimed for the second half of 2026. CEO Masayoshi Son has dismissed fears of an AI bubble, calling such talk an "insult" at a shareholder meeting on June 24 and declaring himself the leader of a "revolution that has only just begun."
Still, the market reaction tells a different story. S&P Global downgraded SoftBank's outlook to "negative" in March 2026, arguing that its "asset liquidity and quality" are getting worse as more cash gets locked in a high-burn private company. With OpenAI now likely a 2027 story, SoftBank's path to narrowing that discount just got longer.
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