Missing Polling Data
Key 2026 House Races in Florida, California, and Tennessee Lack Public Polling Data
Anonymous
Key Points
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The Florida race in Article 1 is identified by the page slug as House contest FL-D000628.
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The California race in Article 2 is identified by the page slug as House contest CA-B001287.
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The Tennessee race in Article 3 is identified by the page slug as House contest TN-K000392.
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A separate Florida House contest in Article 4 is identified by the page slug as FL-L000597, distinguishing it from the other Florida races covered.
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Article 5 covers another distinct Florida House contest, identified by the page slug as FL-P000622.
Five major House races across Florida, California, and Tennessee heading into 2026 have one thing in common: no public polling data yet. IJR tracked contests in Florida's 26th District (held by Neal P. Dunn), California's 26th District (held by Ami Bera), and Tennessee's 26th District (held by David Kustoff), along with two additional Florida races. With the general election campaign underway, these competitive seats remain largely unmeasured by traditional polls.
Florida Races Still Waiting for First Polls
Florida has three House races tracked without public polling. The 26th District race for Neal P. Dunn's seat, identified as FL-D000628, shows no polling so far. A separate race in FL-L000597 and another in FL-P000622 are also unmeasured. IJR used Federal Election Commission filings and the public congress-legislators dataset to identify candidates and incumbents in these contests.
The lack of early polling makes it difficult to assess which races are truly competitive. Candidates are filing with the FEC and building campaigns, but voters have little public data about preferences or momentum. IJR's community picks for these races are unscientific reader polls, not formal forecasts.
California and Tennessee Races Also Lack Polling Data
California's 26th District race for Ami Bera's seat (CA-B001287) has seen no public polling conducted yet. Similarly, Tennessee's 26th District race for David Kustoff's seat (TN-K000392) remains unmeasured. IJR identified these seats using the public congress-legislators dataset and tracked candidate filings through the FEC.
These West and Mid-South races typically draw less early polling attention than high-profile seats. Pollsters often focus resources on races they expect to be highly competitive. Without baseline data, candidates and party strategists must rely on internal polling and voter contact feedback to guide their campaigns.
How IJR Is Tracking These 2026 Contests
IJR compiled race pages by pulling data from multiple sources. The public congress-legislators dataset provided seat and incumbent information. Candidate information came from Federal Election Commission filings. Wikipedia polling rosters and public polling exports fill in any available data — though in these five races, no polls exist yet.
The pages include "community picks" — unscientific reader polls where visitors vote on their choice. These are explicitly labeled as informal sentiment, not formal forecasts. As we move closer to 2026, professional pollsters will likely begin measuring these races to gauge competitiveness and guide campaign strategy.
Sentiment
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