Tight Maine Race
Maine Senate Race Remains Tight as Poll Shows Platner Ahead, Collins Draws Democrats
Key Points
Collins draws 10% of voters who indicate they prefer Democratic control of the Senate, suggesting cross-appeal that could affect party-line voting dynamics.
Platner leads with strong backing from Democrats and majorities of younger, college-educated and Portland-area voters, signaling a favorable demographic alignment for a Democratic outsider.
Platner is described as an oyster fisherman, 41, a political newcomer who rode a populist message to the Democratic nomination.
Colllins has a 48% favorability rating compared with Platner’s 45%, and both candidates are viewed unfavorably by about half of respondents.
The poll notes a margin of error of about 4.8 percentage points, underscoring that the 49%–47% lead is statistically not definitive and could swing as campaigning continues.
Democrat Graham Platner holds a narrow lead over six-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate race, 49% to 47%, according to a new poll from The New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena College. The margin falls within the survey's 4.8 percentage point error range, making the contest statistically tied — but it marks the first major poll to show the political newcomer ahead in the general election.
Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer and Iraq and Afghanistan combat veteran from Sullivan, Maine, rode a populist wave to win the Democratic primary on June 9 with 72% of the vote. The race is widely seen as one of Democrats' best chances to flip a Senate seat and reclaim the chamber's majority.
Voters Want Democratic Control — But Some Still Pick Collins
About 54% of Maine voters say they want Democrats to control the Senate, according to USA Today. That desire is the primary engine driving Platner's numbers, says Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute. But the dynamic is not clean-cut: Collins still draws 10% of voters who say they prefer Democratic Senate control. That cross-party appeal could be the difference in a race this close.
Collins holds a 48% favorability rating, edging Platner's 45%. Both candidates are viewed unfavorably by roughly half of all respondents. Collins has served Maine for 30 years and holds the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She is also the only Republican senator from a state that voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, according to WABI.
Platner's Controversies Shadow a Populist Surge
Platner's rise has not been smooth. In October 2025, reporters uncovered a Nazi-linked "Totenkopf" skull tattoo on his chest and a cache of deleted Reddit posts containing offensive content. Platner said he got the tattoo during a "drunken night" in Croatia in 2007 and was unaware of its meaning. He later had it covered. On his old online posts, he told the Portland Press Herald: "I look back now and I don't mean to be flippant, but it was just dumb stuff on the internet... I was an asshole."
EMILY's List called Platner's past "unacceptable and disqualifying," pointing to Reddit comments about sexual assault. Reports also surfaced of sexually explicit texts he sent while married. Political scientist John Cluverius of UMass Lowell warned that Platner is "less well known than Collins," meaning his lead is fragile as more voters learn about his history. Despite all of it, Platner remains competitive — particularly among voters who see Senate control as the overriding issue.
Demographics and Money Split the Race Wide Open
Platner leads among Democrats, younger voters, college-educated residents, and those in the Portland area, according to USA Today. The gender divide is striking: Platner leads among women by 12 points, 54% to 42%, while Collins leads among men by 9 points, 51% to 42%. Those splits mirror a national pattern where Democratic outsiders build coalitions of younger and urban voters while losing rural and older ones.
On fundraising, Collins has the backing of $42 million from the Senate Leadership Fund and nearly 100 billionaire donors, including a $1 million contribution from the owner of New Balance. Platner raised over $1 million in his first nine days and has matched Collins' total — but almost entirely through small-dollar donations, according to WABI. Collins pushed back on Platner's corruption claims, saying: "These are lies... I have served this state with integrity for 30 years."
A Senate Seat That Could Flip the Whole Chamber
Maine is one of the top targets on the Democratic map for flipping the Senate. Governor Janet Mills dropped her own Senate bid in April after polling showed her losing ground to Platner's momentum, clearing the lane for him. Bernie Sanders endorsed Platner at a Portland rally on Labor Day 2025, cementing his progressive credentials early. A Platner win would be a direct rebuke of Collins' 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — a decision that still drives voter anger in the state, according to Seacoast Online.
With the margin this tight and the error range at 4.8 points, neither side can claim a real lead yet. Campaigning continues through November, and both candidates are betting that their framing — Collins as the experienced moderate, Platner as the working-class outsider — will be the one that sticks. National attention on this race is only expected to grow.
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