Trump's Independent Erosion
AP-NORC analysis reveals Trump's independent voter support sharply declined during second term.
Key Points
The analysis found a sharp early drop for non-college independents: positive views fell from 48% in the months before Trump returned to office to 31% in polling during his first 100 days—before declining further to about one-quarter during the government shutdown and early 2026.
AP-NORC’s reporting notes that Trump’s 2024 return to office was “fueled, in part,” by independent voters who viewed him as the stronger candidate on major issues—particularly the economy—after which their views “soured quickly” once he took the helm.
The aggregated polling tracked both “favorability and presidential approval ratings,” not just one measure of sentiment—helping show the downward trend consistently across how Americans evaluate Trump personally and as president.
Independent voters are souring on President Donald Trump at a striking rate, and a major new analysis shows just how fast the shift happened. AP-NORC aggregated nearly two dozen polls from July 2024 through April 2026 and found that positive views among non-college independents collapsed from 48% before Trump returned to office to roughly 25% by spring 2026.
The finding matters because more Americans now identify as independents than ever before. Researcher Tafari Torres said Democrats' and Republicans' views of Trump "have been relatively stable," while independents are the voters "reacting to the events" and changing their support. That makes them the group most likely to decide the 2026 midterms.
A 23-Point Drop That Erased the Education Gap
Before Trump won in 2024, non-college independents backed him at much higher rates than college-educated ones. That gap is now gone. Bucks County Beacon reports that positive views among non-college independents fell from 48% in late 2024 to 31% during Trump's first 100 days in office. By the government shutdown in late 2025, that number dropped further to about 25%.
College-educated independents were already skeptical of Trump going into his second term. Non-college independents now share that skepticism. The education divide that helped fuel his 2024 victory has effectively been erased in less than 18 months.
Economy Drove the Win — Governance Drove the Fall
Trump's 2024 comeback was "fueled, in part," by independents who saw him as stronger on the economy, according to AP-NORC. Inflation and frustration with the previous administration pushed many to his side. But once he took office, those views "soured quickly."
The slide tracked with specific events. The "Big Beautiful Bill" — a sweeping legislative package pushed in summer 2025 — stalled. A government shutdown followed. Then came the start of the Iran conflict in early 2026. Each moment chipped away at independent support. Analysts say independents prefer stability. They got disruption instead.
Black and Hispanic Independents Also Pulled Back
Trump made historic gains with Black and Hispanic voters in 2024 — especially men without college degrees. Greeley Tribune notes that those gains have largely reversed. Black and Hispanic independents who moved toward Trump during the campaign have pulled back, though the size of the shift is smaller than among white non-college independents.
The AP-NORC data tracked both favorability — how people feel about Trump personally — and presidential approval — how they rate his job performance. Both measures showed the same downward trend. That consistency across two different questions makes the finding harder to dismiss as a polling fluke.
A Math Problem for Republicans Heading Into 2026
NORC researchers warn that continued erosion among independents "could pose political trouble" for Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms, according to Head Topics. The GOP's 2024 margins in key House and Senate races were razor-thin. Holding those seats with independent support at 25% would be a steep challenge.
Torres framed the core problem plainly: the base is locked in on both sides. Republicans still approve of Trump. Democrats still disapprove. But independents move. And right now, they are moving away. With November 2026 approaching, that movement is the number that both parties are watching most closely.
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