Nike Price Target Cut

Why Bank of America Turned Bearish

Bank of America's $30 target assumes a 16-times price-to-earnings multiple, down sharply from 22 times. This new multiple now matches Nike's peer average BofA Source. The bank's fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share forecast sits 14% below what Wall Street consensus expects, signaling deep skepticism about the company's recovery.

The core problem: Nike's classic products are selling poorly, and the company's turnaround is taking far longer than investors hoped BofA Source. Retail sell-through lags shipments to stores, meaning inventories pile up while demand stays soft.

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China Weakness Threatens Margins and Discounts

China represents a major headwind. Nike's partner online sales in that market have shrunk, which could force the company into heavy discounting through the second quarter BofA Source. Retailers are also growing more cautious about stocking new product launches, further dampening wholesale demand.

North American wholesale sales are expected to decline from Q2 onward through all of fiscal 2027 BofA Source. This signals persistent weakness in Nike's biggest and most profitable region, with no clear recovery in sight.

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One Bright Spot: Tariff Relief Ahead

Bank of America sees one potential tailwind: tariffs. The firm estimates Nike's tariff rate has fallen to 10% to 12.5%, down from about 20% a year ago BofA Source. This easing could provide modest margin relief if it continues, though it won't offset the sales weakness.

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Other Analysts Split on Nike's Outlook

Not all Wall Street analysts agree with Bank of America's grim view. Oppenheimer maintained a positive rating and noted some improvement in its shoe-market tracker, suggesting demand may be stabilizing Trading View. Barclays also held its positive stance but cautioned that any return to sales growth won't be smooth or quick.

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