Record Sovereign Debt Overhaul
Venezuela Prepares Record $240 Billion Sovereign Debt Restructuring to Re-enter Global Markets
Anonymous
Key Points
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The IMF is not endorsing Venezuela's debt sustainability analysis and is not involved in preparing it, though it continues technical discussions with Caracas since relations were resumed in April after a seven-year gap.
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A substantial portion of the $240 billion debt is linked to PDVSA and unpaid interest, with about $60 billion in PDVSA-related sovereign bonds and obligations and roughly $40 billion in accrued interest.
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Caracas plans to publish a viability plan in early July and a macroeconomic framework later in the month, with the aim of restoring access to international capital markets by year-end.
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Interim president Delcy Rodríguez leads the effort following Maduro’s capture in January, as Caracas seeks to rebuild its relationship with creditors and return to global markets.
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Bondholders are expected to interpret the debt sustainability assessment as a signal of a substantial debt write-down, a perception that could influence negotiations in the absence of IMF involvement.
Venezuela is set to acknowledge a debt burden of roughly $240 billion — likely making it the largest sovereign restructuring in history, far above prior market estimates of $150–200 billion, according to Financial Times. The revelation comes after U.S. special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in January, opening the door for interim leader Delcy Rodríguez to attempt a full financial reset by year-end.
The scale of the debt dwarfs Greece's $200 billion default in 2012, the previous record, according to Semafor. Venezuela's economy is estimated at just $100 billion today, giving it a debt-to-GDP ratio above 200% — meaning it owes more than twice what it produces in a year.
How Venezuela's Debt Ballooned to $240 Billion
Venezuela stopped paying its international bonds in 2017, under Maduro. For nearly a decade, the country was a financial black box. Unpaid interest piled up year after year. European Business Magazine reports the country has been in default ever since, with creditors unable to recover a cent.
Of the $240 billion total, about $60 billion comes from PDVSA-related sovereign bonds and obligations — debt tied to the state oil company. Another $40 billion is accrued interest that went unpaid since 2017, according to Financial Times. That means roughly $100 billion of the headline figure is interest and oil-company debt — not original loans.
Maduro's Capture Unlocked the Restructuring Door
On January 3–4, 2026, U.S. Delta Force and 160th SOAR troops raided Caracas and captured Maduro. He was flown to New York, where he now faces narco-terrorism charges, according to ABC News. Delcy Rodríguez, formerly his vice president, was sworn in as interim president the next day.
The political shift mattered because U.S. Treasury sanctions had blocked American-adjacent financial firms from advising Caracas. With Maduro gone, those sanctions lifted. By May 13, Caracas hired Centerview Partners as its restructuring adviser, Crypto Briefing reported. Lead banker Matthieu Pigasse — a veteran of Greece's and Argentina's debt crises — has worked with Rodríguez for over a decade.
IMF Sits Out the Debt Math — and Critics Are Worried
The IMF resumed talks with Venezuela in April after a seven-year freeze. But IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack made one thing clear: the Fund is not writing Venezuela's debt sustainability analysis and is not part of the restructuring talks, according to Global Finance. Caracas plans to publish its own analysis in early July and a macroeconomic framework later that month.
That decision is raising red flags. Some opposition members fear that without an independent auditor, Caracas can dictate steeper write-downs — known as "haircuts" — without outside checks, according to Financial Times. Critics call it "a story, not a plan." Supporters argue it lets Venezuela avoid the harsh austerity conditions the IMF typically demands.
Bondholders Cautious as a Year-End Deadline Looms
Markets reacted with cautious optimism after the $240 billion figure was disclosed. Sovereign and PDVSA bonds rose about 1 cent on the dollar. But analysts at Tellimer warned the high number could "dilute recoveries" for bondholders, according to Bilyonaryo. In plain terms: more total debt means each creditor gets a smaller slice.
Rodríguez has set December 31, 2026, as the deadline to close a deal and re-enter international capital markets. Venezuela also recently recovered rights to $4.9 billion in IMF Special Drawing Rights — a small but meaningful sign of financial rehabilitation, according to Caracas Chronicles. ExxonMobil, which once called Venezuela "uninvestable," has already sent technical teams to evaluate oil projects there.
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