Maine's ranked-choice upset.
Matt Dunlap secures Democratic nomination in Maine CD2 after ranked-choice comeback, faces Paul LePage.
Key Points
The ranked-choice retabulations that decided the Democratic nomination were run by Maine’s Secretary of State office at about “1:30 a.m. Friday,” after Dunlap had trailed Baldacci in the initial round.
Before the runoff, Bangor Daily News reported Dunlap entered the final count at about 29%, trailing Baldacci by more than two percentage points; it also said pre-election polling showed Dunlap “holding a dominant lead among early voters.”
Dunlap’s pitch for running was tied to his criticism of U.S. Rep. Jared Golden—Bangor Daily News reported Dunlap was driven in part by “frustration with the congressman’s vote for a Republican voting bill.”
In detailing Dunlap’s background, Bangor Daily News said he was “the former head of the gun-rights Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine” and that he endorsed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during the 2016 presidential primaries.
After winning, Dunlap told supporters the results show “people want real change and a better future,” and he promised to “defeat Paul LePage one more time,” adding a policy agenda that included “Medicare for All,” “affordable childcare,” “a lower cost of living,” and “stopping this illegal war in Iran.”
Matt Dunlap won the Democratic nomination for Maine's 2nd Congressional District early Friday morning, overturning an initial deficit through ranked-choice voting to defeat state Sen. Joe Baldacci. The Secretary of State's office ran the final retabulation software at around 1:30 a.m., according to Bangor Daily News, after ballots from across the sprawling rural district were couriered to Augusta for counting.
Dunlap, a 61-year-old former secretary of state and current state auditor, now faces former Republican Gov. Paul LePage in November. The seat was left open by retiring Rep. Jared Golden, who served eight years before stepping away, citing threats of political violence against his family.
Ranked-Choice Comeback Flips Baldacci's Early Lead
On primary night, Baldacci led Dunlap by more than two percentage points. Bangor Daily News reported Dunlap entered the final round with about 29% of the vote, trailing Baldacci. But when third- and fourth-place finishers Jordan Wood and Paige Loud were eliminated, their voters' second choices broke heavily toward Dunlap. That wave of transfers pushed him past Baldacci to clinch the nomination.
Maine was the first state to use ranked-choice voting for federal elections, starting in 2018. That same system helped Jared Golden win his first term by overturning an early lead held by Republican Bruce Poliquin. Now it has shaped the district's next chapter in nearly the same way.
Shadowy PAC Money Clouded the Democratic Primary
The race drew heavy outside spending. National Democrats backed Baldacci. But a group called Real Change PAC spent an estimated $300,000 in the final weeks to boost Dunlap and attack Baldacci, according to Bangor Daily News. The PAC had alleged ties to Republican vendors, raising questions about whether the GOP tried to pick its preferred Democratic opponent.
Some Democratic operatives said the spending amounted to meddling. The DCCC-preferred Baldacci lost, marking what analysts described as a blow to the national party establishment. It was the second time in June 2026 that a DCCC-backed candidate fell to a progressive challenger, according to San Luis Obispo Tribune.
Who Is Dunlap? A Pro-Gun Progressive With a Complicated Past
Dunlap is a rare political mix. He was the former head of the Sportsman's Alliance of Maine, a gun-rights group. He also endorsed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primaries, according to Bangor Daily News. In 2026, he was backed by the progressive group Our Revolution. He ran in part out of frustration with Golden's vote for a Republican voting bill.
Dunlap also served on President Trump's 2017 voter fraud commission before suing it for lack of transparency. After winning the primary, he told supporters, "people want real change and a better future." He promised to pursue Medicare for All, affordable childcare, a lower cost of living, and said he would focus on "stopping this illegal war in Iran."
LePage Looms as Early Favorite in Trump Country
Dunlap now faces LePage, a two-term former governor with a strong base in rural Maine. Trump won the 2nd District by nearly 10 percentage points in 2024, according to The Maine Monitor. Golden himself won re-election that same cycle by just 0.5 points. Those numbers make LePage the early frontrunner heading into November.
The general election sets up a stark contrast. LePage represents conservative populism. Dunlap is running on a progressive platform. With Golden gone, the centrist middle ground that defined the district for eight years has largely disappeared, according to Charlotte Observer.
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