Global Shipping at Risk
US-Iran threats escalate, widening Red Sea shipping risks and driving oil price surge.
Anonymous
Key Points
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Five tankers changed course in the Red Sea to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with three tankers loaded with Saudi oil for China and India making U-turns.
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Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said, 'If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe... We have said many times that the situation in the strait will not return to the way it was before the war.'
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Millions of barrels of Saudi oil per day have been heading to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
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If shipments cannot pass through the southern Bab el-Mandeb, they would have to use the northern route via the Suez Canal, which adds weeks to journeys and significantly raises freight and transit costs.
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Iranian commander Mousavi warned that Iran will cut electricity to U.S. regional allies if its bridges or power infrastructure are attacked, signaling broader retaliation beyond shipping routes.
President Trump vowed to bomb one Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, dramatically raising the stakes in an already explosive conflict Middle East Monitor. Iran fired back fast. IRGC Aerospace Commander Majid Mousavi warned that if Iran's power infrastructure is hit, "the power outage of the allies and hosts of the child killers is certain" Benzinga.
At the same time, Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a naval blockade on Saudi ports and threatened to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the 14-mile-wide southern Red Sea chokepoint. Five tankers immediately changed course, including three Saudi oil-laden ships bound for China and India Mish Talk. Brent crude climbed toward $93–$95 per barrel as traders absorbed the shock of two major oil routes under threat simultaneously.
Trump's Bridge-for-Ship Threat Puts Tehran on Notice
Trump made the threat explicit on July 22. "Any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz — whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device — the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT," he declared Mish Talk. Officials warned that targets could include facilities near Tehran itself.
Iran's Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf answered with his own stark warning Middle East Monitor. "In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil," he said. "If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe." He added that the Strait of Hormuz "will not return to pre-war conditions" — a direct signal that Iran sees no path back to normal.
Houthis Seal the Southern Exit, Tankers Make U-Turns
Saudi Arabia had already been routing 4 to 5 million barrels of oil per day through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu — specifically to avoid the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz Head Topics. That backup route now faces its own blockade. The Houthis sent emails to global shipping firms on July 20, officially banning ships from using Saudi ports.
Ship-tracking data confirmed the impact immediately. Tankers including the Rodos, Xin Long Yang, and New Prime made sharp U-turns in the Red Sea on July 21 Mish Talk. If ships cannot pass Bab el-Mandeb, they must use the Suez Canal from the north or sail around Africa entirely — adding weeks to each journey and pushing freight costs up 20% to 50%.
Oil Prices Spike as Two Chokepoints Go Dark
The double blockade is hitting energy markets hard. Brent crude surged from under $72 per barrel earlier in July to over $93–$95 per barrel by July 22 Mish Talk. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20 million barrels per day. The Bab el-Mandeb handles roughly 6.2 million more. Together, those two routes move a massive share of the world's oil supply.
Egypt is also taking a hit. Red Sea disruptions have already cost the country $10 billion in lost Suez Canal fees. Very Large Crude Carriers cannot sail through Suez fully loaded — they must partially offload into the Sumed pipeline first, adding cost and delay Bloomingbit. U.S. gasoline prices are climbing too, putting political pressure on the White House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A $37.5 Billion War With No Off-Ramp in Sight
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate that the U.S. has already spent $37.5 billion on the military campaign against Iran. He asked for an additional $67 billion in emergency funds to restock depleted weapons. Eighteen U.S. service members have been killed so far Mish Talk. The Pentagon says the Strait of Hormuz "remains open," but Iran has targeted more than 30 commercial vessels since hostilities began.
Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi summed up Tehran's position plainly: "Eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response" Middle East Monitor. With both strait exits now under threat, traders, shippers, and governments are bracing for the crisis to get worse before any deal is reached.
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