Hormuz Energy Resilience
Middle East Continues Oil and LNG Shipments Through Hormuz Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
Key Points
A company's helicopter crashed on Sunday, killing 14 people, as a Very Large Crude Carrier was loading at Ras Tanura, underscoring ongoing operational risks in Hormuz transit.
Iran accelerated oil loadings under sanctions waivers, including simultaneous loading at Kharg Island export terminals for the first time in nearly a week.
Three other VLCCs loaded oil and proceeded on their voyages while going dark, i.e., with transponders switched off, to reduce exposure through the Gulf.
Two Iranian-flagged VLCCs, named Dan and Hawk, entered the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, signaling ongoing Iranian participation in loadings despite tensions.
One of the loaded VLCCs that had entered Ras Tanura subsequently exited the Strait and is heading for Japan, illustrating continued long-range routing through Hormuz.
Middle East oil producers are pushing ahead with crude and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, even as tanker attacks and U.S.-Iran clashes rattled the region over the weekend. On Sunday, a Saudi Aramco helicopter crashed at the Ras Tanura terminal, killing all 14 people on board — all Saudi nationals — while a supertanker loaded just below, according to Al Jazeera.
Despite the violence, throughput is climbing. Regional shut-in production has fallen from 11.7 million barrels per day to 9.6 million bpd in just three weeks, according to Rystad Energy. About 8 million barrels of Emirati and Qatari crude moved out over the weekend alone, Reuters reported.
Saudi Arabia Resumes Ras Tanura Loadings After Four Months
Saudi Aramco restarted crude loadings at Ras Tanura on June 26 — the first time in nearly four months. For most of this year, Saudi exports were diverted to Yanbu, a Red Sea port that bypasses the Strait entirely. The restart signals a major shift in Aramco's export strategy, as it works to restore pre-war shipments of over 5 million barrels per day, according to BNN Bloomberg.
By Monday, a fourth Very Large Crude Carrier — a supertanker — had begun loading at Ras Tanura. One previously loaded vessel has already exited the Strait and is now heading to Japan, Eagle Intelligence tracking data showed. Three other VLCCs went dark — meaning they switched off their AIS transponders — to reduce their exposure during the 150-nautical-mile Hormuz transit, according to Modern Diplomacy.
Iran Races to Export Oil Under a 60-Day Sanctions Waiver
The loading surge on the Iranian side is being driven by a U.S. Treasury license called General License X, issued on June 22, 2026. It authorizes the production and sale of Iranian oil through August 21 — a 60-day window. The National Iranian Oil Company is aggressively using it to clear stored inventories, according to OilPrice.com.
On Saturday, Iran loaded oil simultaneously at both Kharg Island export terminals for the first time in nearly a week. The Iranian-flagged VLCCs Dan and Hawk entered the Strait of Hormuz the same day. Iranian crude is being sold at a discount of $10–$12 per barrel, primarily to Chinese buyers, according to BNN Bloomberg. Critics argue the waiver hands Iran an estimated $3.5 billion windfall in just two weeks.
Ceasefire Deal Holds, But the Strait Remains a Flashpoint
On Sunday evening, a U.S. official announced an agreement with Iran to halt hostilities and restart talks under the Islamabad MoU — a 14-point peace deal signed on June 17, 2026, and brokered by Pakistani mediators. The framework includes the "toll-free" reopening of the Strait, according to Modern Diplomacy. On June 28, 42 vessels transited the waterway — 28 inbound, 14 outbound — Windward data showed.
The ceasefire is under strain. Attacks hit two commercial vessels near the Strait as recently as this past weekend. The Institute for the Study of War warns that Iran is using the waiver window to extract economic gains before any permanent nuclear deal is reached. Tony Sycamore of IG Markets put it plainly: if these flare-ups lead to broader conflict, "current prices would be significantly undervalued," according to OilPrice.com.
Global Oil Markets Stay Sensitive as the August Deadline Looms
The return of Gulf exports — which account for roughly one-third of global oil supply — pushed Brent crude down 10.6% last week. But the recovery is fragile. The 60-day sanctions waiver expires on August 21. If the Bürgenstock Negotiations in Switzerland fail to produce a permanent deal, the region could return to a full blockade, according to UK Head Topics.
Producers and traders are clearly hedging. Going dark — switching off vessel transponders — has become standard practice through the Strait. Maritime analysts say this is "prioritizing throughput over visibility." The U.S. and Iran have set up a communication line to prevent accidents at sea. But Iran's state-linked media frames this as an admission of Iranian control over the waterway, a divide that leaves the strait's future deeply uncertain, according to CA Head Topics.
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