Oil Prices Stay Below $100

Why Oil Prices Remain Below $100 Despite Middle East Supply Disruptions

Global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but remains below $100 a barrel, despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict disrupting Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Crude oil shipments from Middle East producers are now at about 11 million barrels per day, down from 18 million bpd before the Iran war began. Despite this, the daily moving average of Brent crude is still around 4 million to 5 million barrels, which puts Brent at a "fair" price of $95. Non-OPEC producers are expected to increase output by a combined 1.4 million bPD this year. Saudi Aramco resumed loadings from its Ras Tanura port in the Gulf in August, although its exports from Yanbu in the Red sea remain under pressure from a naval blockade by the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis. Non OPEC producers are also increasing output, partly filling the shortfall. Russia has downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low, potentially reducing its exports.

Topics